~1.7× the national average. Here's why it's climbing, how your building compares, and what to do about it.
AI infrastructure buildout is responsible for roughly 50% of all new US electricity demand. The load is concentrated in Northeast and Mid-Atlantic grids — the same grids serving New York. The demand is already contracted; the rate increase is locked in for years.
PJM capacity prices hit $329/MW-day in 2026/27 — up from $29/MW-day two years ago. Capacity charges are now 30–40% of the all-in commercial rate. Building owners are paying for grid headroom that was cheap in 2022 and is no longer.
NYISO faces constrained downstate transmission capacity and limited new generation, making it one of the most capacity-cost-exposed grids in the country. AI data center demand is adding load faster than new supply can respond.
EIA forecasts retail electricity up 13–18% across 2025–2026 by region. The gap between wholesale spikes already locked in and what's been passed through to retail bills means increases are still flowing. Commercial demand is projected to surpass residential by 2027.
At 24.98¢/kWh, a 100,000 SF commercial building consuming a typical 15 kWh/SF/yr pays approximately $375k/yr in electricity alone. Every 10% rate increase adds $37k/yr to that bill — automatically, with no change in behavior.
A 200,000 SF building pays double. A building with older systems consuming 20+ kWh/SF/yr pays significantly more. The rate trajectory means every year of deferred efficiency work costs more than the year before.
| Building size | At 15 kWh/SF | At 20 kWh/SF |
|---|---|---|
| 50k SF | $187k | $250k |
| 100k SF | $375k | $500k |
| 200k SF | $749k | $999k |
| 500k SF | $1.87M | $2.50M |
Every kWh avoided is worth 24.98¢/kWh — more than it was a year ago and less than it will be next year. Efficiency measures (envelope, controls, HVAC) reduce consumption permanently. The payback math improves every time the rate climbs.
The energy penalty law and the rising electricity bill compound: high consumption means both a higher energy cost and a higher compliance penalty. The fix is the same — reduce the kWh, eliminate both.